Achieving election success by hacking your serotonin.

Achieving election success by hacking your serotonin.

Achieving election success by hacking your serotonin.

By Philip Ingram MBE

With at least 60 elections across the globe in 2024, including the Russian Presidential Election, US Presidential Election, EU Elections and UK General Election, what techniques are the political parties likely to use in order to persuade you, the voter, to back them?  How can we be sure that what we are seeing is right especially when our politics seems to be one of soundbites over substance? Are we being misled or worse still hacked……..?

If we start to look at the science behind messaging there is no better start than a fascinating paper, written in 2014 by Victor Danciu at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies. It is called, ‘Manipulative marketing: persuasion and manipulation of the consumer through advertising.’ What has this got to do with serotonin or election campaigns I hear you ask?

Most of us can think of an advert on the television that we like, it makes us smile, its visuals or sound is pleasing, it instantly reminds us of the product being advertised. It is that behavioural response that is triggered by the release of chemicals in the brain, with serotonin being one of them alongside dopamine, oxytocin and endorphins.  These are the “feel good quartet” of compounds responsible for our happiness.  Political campaigns, like any marketing activities are designed to stimulate these compounds.

Serotonin is released when you feel significant or important. Dopamine motivates us to take action toward goals, desires, and needs, and gives a surge of reinforcing pleasure when achieving them. Oxytocin creates intimacy, trust, and builds healthy relationships and endorphins are released but the body when stimulated in the right way such as laughing, and they help to alleviate anxiety and depression.

In his paper, Victor Danciu talks of non-manipulative advertising and manipulative advertising. He says, “non-manipulative persuasion through advertising consists in simply presenting the product or service, in the best possible light. This type of advertising is truthful, that is the facts presented are real, the information is giving in a clear, logical manner, in order to convince by informing.”  Just think, how many political campaigns have you seen that would fit into this bracket?

He describes manipulative advertising as, “deceitful advertising which uses facts, but deceptive facts. It uses confusing, misleading, or blatantly untrue statements when promoting a product.”  Remember the product in an election is a perception, a belief, a political party, or an individual. In politics, every public comment by every politician is designed to send a message, it is marketing and advertising, you must decide if it is manipulative or non-manipulative?

Manipulative advertising uses facts, arguments in a way designed to influence consumers emotions in a misleading and deceptive manner. Photographs are photoshopped to make the subject look more appealing, the chosen words are designed to stimulate an emotional response, the right music is added to enhance that emotion and humour is used in some adverts to make people laugh. All of these are stimulating the “feel good quartet” and when that happens it is natural to think positively about what is being offered.

In a similar way emotions can be stimulated when negative arguments are pushed out like cuts in police numbers, austerity, hospital waiting times, crime, pollution, minority rights and more. The key here is not that these are being highlighted, but how they are highlighted.

A full tool set of linguistic, visual, auditory techniques are used to influence the thinking of the person receiving the messages. These are not always obvious, Danciu says, “the most important and effective linguistic manipulation is that of subliminal advertising which aims at the subliminal seduction of the customer.”

Dr Michael Kosinski who gained his PhD from Cambridge University, specialised in Big Data. He has shown that analysing a big data profile on individuals can give insights as to how people think, what they like, what they don’t like and even potentially how they probably vote. This technique is called psychodemographic profiling and he explains how this can be used to develop targeted marketing or messaging, designed to drive a behavioural response in an individual.

Now, combine Danciu’s research with Artificial Intelligence or AI, to ensure the messaging is delivered in the way you want it with the messages you want to hear using language that has had an impact on you before and that is what Dr Kosinski describes.

It is no accident that health professionals or recent hospital patients will see more political messaging about the state of the health service or new investment coming. It is no accident that police officers and people in high crime areas will see more political messaging about police cuts, or reinvestment to recruit more police.

In the United States, in the run up to the 2020 presidential election, the Los Angeles Times reported that the Trump campaign was building “a digital operation unrivalled by Democrats in its use of data-mining techniques and algorithms.” The Spectator magazine when talking of a UK General Election, “the most pivotal campaigning will take place, increasingly online. Digital campaigning has risen in importance with each election.”

“Personal data is now as important a commodity as oil,” Dean Armstrong a leading KC told The Telegraph newspaper, but the question is who has access to that personal data and could it be misused?  Michael Kosinski found in his research, that a basic profile just based on social media likes can predict your behaviours. An advanced profile, based on what websites you visit, what news you read, your job, your politics, your purchases, and more, would mean such a company knows you better than you know yourself. Combine that with the data of your friends and families and an extremely comprehensive understanding of what makes you and your loved ones ‘tick,’ can be known. This type of profiling has already been abused as the 2018 Cambridge Analytica scandal highlighted.

With the right data, people can be targeted at an individual level in a way they know it will have the biggest psychological effect, utilising the “feel good quartet” again.  Most people will say “I haven’t been influenced by anything; I know my own mind.” I just go back to Danciu comment, “the most important and effective linguistic manipulation is that of subliminal advertising which aims at the subliminal seduction of the customer.”

The potential for undue influence is summed up by a caveat the UK’s secret intelligence agency, MI6, put on many of their human intelligence reports, referred to as CX reports. The caveat says, “this individual may be trying to influence as much as inform.”  Influence operations are centuries old, what makes them personal is the ability for computers to develop such detailed profiles and thereby predict behavioural reactions to certain stimuli. Be mindful for your serotonin is being hacked!

Geopolitical PODCAST – 2024 a look forward

Geopolitical PODCAST – 2024 a look forward

Ian Thornton Trump CD, Lisa Forte and Philip Ingram MBE look at events coming in 2024 and what could influence them from a geopolitical and cyber perspective. This episode is sponsored by CYJAX.

Ian Thornton-Trump CD, CISO for Cyjax, Lisa Forte, Partner at Red Goat Security and Philip Ingram MBE of Grayhare Media take a look at some of the more interesting world events which are set to take place in 2024. Kicking off our usual banter on this particular topic was an article in the Economist – but due to the “Great British Paywall” I’ve substituted this article https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/3/24022864/elections-democracy-2024-united-states-india-pakistan-indonesia-european-parliament-far-right-voting instead which captures the essence of the discussion.

With great analysis from Phil and Lisa we talk about the upcoming Russian election and the tone (as usual) turns ominous as we discuss reminders of Putin’s responses to critics of his regime. https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-russians-fall-windows-putin-ukraine-war-1781790 We can expect more gravity related fatalities soon in the run up to the March 2024 Russian election.

India, the world’s largest democracy will conduct a national election April to May 2024. The growing population of India and it’s important in world affairs is fast becoming a sought after strategic partner for many powerful countries. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/bjp-modi-india-general-election-2024 but the massive disinformation capabilities could destabilise the process to a considerable degree. Lisa, citing the recent Brazilian election experience with disinformation across social media platforms and Phil identifying the magnitude of the problem brought to light in this research: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-01-13-social-media-manipulation-political-actors-industrial-scale-problem-oxford-report place the Indian elections in the right context and identify a potential lynch pin in geopolitical relationships. This will be an election which many people will be watching the results not the least of which are the 1.4 billion Indians—and a considerable number of Indian ex-pats across the world. For additional information on this subject please see: https://news.mit.edu/2023/study-microtargeting-politics-tailored-ads-0621
The panel observes the potential impacts of recent layoffs in the big social media companies as well as AI content creation may in the words of Lisa “run amok” and the lack of safeguards or “kill switch” when it comes to viral content has every opportunity to feed a cycle of violence, anger and create the right atmosphere for successful disinformation and manipulation. The broader outcome of the election and the inevitable geopolitical forces lead to the panel to conclude that India may be open to shopping for the right defence partner in the years ahead to further its own geopolitical and national policy goals.
It’s inevitable when looking at key events of 2024 the panel turns to the big question of Russia Ukraine confit. Phil’s podcast on the tactical situation can be found here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-day-645-an-update-by-philip-ingram-mbe/id1479994480?i=1000637077000