It is now when, not if, China will take Taiwan by force
It is now when, not if, China will take Taiwan by force.
By Philip Ingram MBE
Chinese forces have been circling Taiwan and carrying out intense and complex military exercises simulating a blockade and the manoeuvres that would be needed for an invasion of the island. China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland with its own constitution and democratically elected government.
Taiwan is vulnerable, 70% of its food is imported as is 90% of its energy but is also exports. One single Taiwanese company, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC supplied over half of the world’s computer chips. Any disruption to the supply chain would have a catastrophic impact on the global technology market. However, the 245 miles (395 km) long and 90 miles (145 km) wide island lies a mere 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of southeastern China.
China has hoped for many years that its influence and position as Taiwan’s largest trading partner would bring the so-called errant province back into the fold, but President Xi Jinping has said “reunification” with the island must be fulfilled and there are increasing numbers of indicators suggesting he has made the decision to take the Island by force. There is no question of ‘if’ anymore, it’s just a question of ‘when.’
Those indicators come in two real forms. The first is easy, the increasingly aggressive military manoeuvres and political rhetoric pressurising Taiwan, with more and more sophisticated military actions from large flights of aircraft flying into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. Or live fire exercises as troops storm beaches, to drone flights circling the Island as Chinas naval forces steam around the island pretending to blockade it. Its deliberate provocation, pressurising the Taiwanese government but also allowing the Chines to monitor Taiwan’s military response. Building their intelligence picture on Taiwan’s reactions.
“We are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavour,” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said at the end of last year, in Beijing. “But we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force,” he added. However, the second set of indicators provide the clear indicator that the Chinese leader Xi Jing Ping has made the decision to take the islands by force. Military manoeuvres can be turned on or turned off but building kit is a statement of intent.
China has been constructing a huge fleet of RoRo ferries with military specifications in mind. Able to take tanks and other military equipment and personnel these dual use ships, with a military and a civilian purpose are not the smoking gun, ferries alone are not a capable invasion fleet. Neither is Chinas increasingly large ‘blue water’ power projection capability having recently launched its third aircraft carrier. However, China is an increase global power with interests to Africa and South America as well as its near seas. As such, an ability to project military capability is justified the same way US and UK power projection is justified.
However, China has unveiled three ‘funnies’ (Hobarts Funnies were modified tanks in WW2 for specific tasks on the D Day beaches.) The Chinese ‘funnies’ aren’t modified tanks but one is what seems to be a mysterious flat top ship, reportedly an uncrewed aircraft carrier or possibly helicopter carrier, constructed at the Guangzhou Shipyard International (GSI) on Longxue Island.
The next, a deep-sea cable cutting device developed by the China Ship Scientific Research Centre (CSSRC) designed to cut the sturdiest cables, layered with steel, rubber and polymer sheaths, these underpin 95 per cent of global data transmission. The tool, which is reported to be able to cut lines at depths of up to 4,000 metres (13,123 feet) has been designed specifically for integration with China’s advanced crewed and uncrewed submersibles.
The final development and the most worrying are vessels also constructed at GSI. They are barges with legs that could drop down to the sea floor to provide a stable platform in shallow water and a bridge that can extend 100 metres from the bow, capable of taking tanks. At the aft of each barge is a platform that allows other ships to dock or unload and other barges to connect to create a pier or causeway. Exactly the concept of the Mulberry harbours taken across the channel by the allies on D Day in 1944 to allow the rapid off load of troops and equipment onto the beaches of Normandy. A prototype was spotted in 2022, but it seems that they are being built in numbers now. They would be essential for any invasion of Taiwan.
These barges have no other use, you only spend money and engineering effort in military shipyards if you have decided to invade. The only question now is when?
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