Ian Thornton Trump CD, Lisa Forte and Philip Ingram MBE look at events coming in 2024 and what could influence them from a geopolitical and cyber perspective. This episode is sponsored by CYJAX.

Ian Thornton-Trump CD, CISO for Cyjax, Lisa Forte, Partner at Red Goat Security and Philip Ingram MBE of Grayhare Media take a look at some of the more interesting world events which are set to take place in 2024. Kicking off our usual banter on this particular topic was an article in the Economist – but due to the “Great British Paywall” I’ve substituted this article https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/3/24022864/elections-democracy-2024-united-states-india-pakistan-indonesia-european-parliament-far-right-voting instead which captures the essence of the discussion.

With great analysis from Phil and Lisa we talk about the upcoming Russian election and the tone (as usual) turns ominous as we discuss reminders of Putin’s responses to critics of his regime. https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-russians-fall-windows-putin-ukraine-war-1781790 We can expect more gravity related fatalities soon in the run up to the March 2024 Russian election.

India, the world’s largest democracy will conduct a national election April to May 2024. The growing population of India and it’s important in world affairs is fast becoming a sought after strategic partner for many powerful countries. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/bjp-modi-india-general-election-2024 but the massive disinformation capabilities could destabilise the process to a considerable degree. Lisa, citing the recent Brazilian election experience with disinformation across social media platforms and Phil identifying the magnitude of the problem brought to light in this research: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-01-13-social-media-manipulation-political-actors-industrial-scale-problem-oxford-report place the Indian elections in the right context and identify a potential lynch pin in geopolitical relationships. This will be an election which many people will be watching the results not the least of which are the 1.4 billion Indians—and a considerable number of Indian ex-pats across the world. For additional information on this subject please see: https://news.mit.edu/2023/study-microtargeting-politics-tailored-ads-0621
The panel observes the potential impacts of recent layoffs in the big social media companies as well as AI content creation may in the words of Lisa “run amok” and the lack of safeguards or “kill switch” when it comes to viral content has every opportunity to feed a cycle of violence, anger and create the right atmosphere for successful disinformation and manipulation. The broader outcome of the election and the inevitable geopolitical forces lead to the panel to conclude that India may be open to shopping for the right defence partner in the years ahead to further its own geopolitical and national policy goals.
It’s inevitable when looking at key events of 2024 the panel turns to the big question of Russia Ukraine confit. Phil’s podcast on the tactical situation can be found here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-day-645-an-update-by-philip-ingram-mbe/id1479994480?i=1000637077000