Kim and Donald, who got trumped?

Kim and Donald, who got trumped?

Kim and Donald , who got trumped?

The historic meeting in Singapore between Kim Jong Un the North Korean dictatorial leader and Donald J Trump the quoted leader of the free world is certainly raining more than one or two interested eyebrows around the globe today. Was it Kim and Donald playing their game of Top Trump if so who got trumped?

2 Hours after the 13-second historic handshake between the 2 leaders they signed a Joint Statement that stated:

  1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
  2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
  3. Reaffirming the April 27,2018Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
  4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

The text of the statement is not as strong as Bill Clinton got in November 1994, but nothing came of that agreement and nothing in the Joint Statement is as groundbreaking as President Trump made out in his press conference.  However, the one positive is that it is a start and like eating an elephant, you have to do it one bite at a time.

President Trump’s post-summit press conference was interesting, he said some truisms and the most profound was, “The past does not have to define the future – our adversaries can become friends.” This is something politicians across the globe should listen to and in particular Sinn Fein and the DUP in Northern Ireland.

However, try as he might he had some veiled threats pointed at Chairman Kim when he said, “Chairman Kim has an incredible opportunity to seize…” and highlighted, “I had 300 sanctions, very big and very powerful ones, I didn’t apply last week as I thought it would be disrespectful….” Trying to suggest that he was leading the talks.  Chairman Kim won’t like that.

There are lots of things that Chairman Kim will like.  He hasn’t actually made any new concessions. The suspension of joint exercises between the US military and South Korea has been a long-standing desire and he has been given that assurance, without the South Koreans having been informed apparently.

More importantly to Chairman Kim, he has been given legitimacy and it is based on his possession of Nuclear weapons. He will see the possession of his nuclear weapons as the reason he has been able to get the US President to come to meet him, the reason why he believes the world now sees him as being at the top table alongside President Trump.

So, what is Trump’s motivation?  President Trump genuinely wants to be seen as a good guy, as someone who when he threatens another nation, they back down and he gets the glory. He sees North Korea as an opportunity, an opportunity that may see the world moves closer to peace, an opportunity for him to grandstand on the world stage, an opportunity for him to continue his rhetoric against his predecessors, an opportunity to achieve something on the scale Obama did when he found and had Osama Bin Laden killed, an opportunity to have his ego stroked with the smell of a Nobel Prize. He is a bit like Muttley in ‘Chase the Pidgeon’ when offered a medal by Dick Dastardly (now I’m showing my age).

What does Chairman Kim want? Legitimacy and an easing of sanctions so he can increase his wealth, he wants to be seen as an equal on the world stage. He has got most of that already! China and Russia are likely to increase sanction busting trade relatively quickly to ensure they remain in favour with Chairman Kim and in the knowledge that to preserve the negotiations, America will turn a blind eye.

He also wants to court increased favour with other like-minded world leaders. He admires Xi Jinping who he will see as a grandfatherly figure and is pleased with President Putin, after all as Trump stated Xi has been sanction busting already and Putin has put a fast internet connection into North Korea. The one thing he doesn’t want is to give up the very weapons that have put him on the world stage, but he knows he can string negotiations along, eking out concessions and he can hide technology whilst putting a show of destroying it on.

So, who are the other players and what do they want?  President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was elected on a promise of seeking Korean reunification. He wants peace on the peninsula and all Korean people to be free. He has been the warm-up act for Trump and has arguably contributed most to facilitate the current position and cooperation with Kim Jong Un.

Xi Jinping is next, he wants the US focus off his border region, he doesn’t want the prospect of a nuclear conflict near his borders and certainly doesn’t want a regional conflict of any kind as he is not ready yet. He wants the US military presence in the South China Seas area to decrease rather than the escalating presence with 3 carrier groups that has happened because of Kim Jon Un’s activities. Xi has developing ambitions around the Spratley and Paracel islands that he wants to be able to get on with quietly.

Xi Jinping wants to strengthen his hand in negotiating away any trade barriers with the US and wants his long-term plan to progress without interference. By positioning himself as a “Grandfather” figure to Kim Jong Un, keeping Chairman Kim sweet with trade, he can keep President Trump sweet with promises of keeping Chairman Kin in line. It is not by accident that Chairman Kim went to meet Xi Jinping twice before this meeting.

Then we have the final player. One not immediately associated with North Korea, but one who has been developing his relationship with Xi Jinping and with Kim Jong Un, but we don’t know why.  He keeps popping up in many global scenarios and it is President Putin of Russia. Last year TransTelekom a major Russian telecommunications company that owns one of the world’s largest networks of fibre optic cables and is a full subsidiary of Russian national railway operator, Russian Railways who are owned by the Russian Federation put a fast internet connection into North Korea.

Around the same time, the North Koreans went from having a small nuclear capability with short-range missiles that failed more often than not, to have a hydrogen bomb capability with ICBMs that worked more often than not.  None has explained how that technological advance happened so quickly in a country under strict international sanctions.

Meanwhile, in Beijing, Xi Jinping hailed ties with Russia as he held talks with President Putin who was on a state visit ahead of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with the Chinese leader calling Putin his “most intimate friend “and presenting him with the Friendship Medal.  The dots start to join up!

We have a new world order developing – and it is those countries who can plan 20+ years out as they have predictable political conditions versus those countries tied to prime ministerial or presidential elections every 5 ish years. Add in a pinch, nay glug of ego with a sniff of Kompromat that may or may not exist and we have a recipe for changing political times.

The Alternative War espoused in JJ Patrick’s book of the same name has just taken on new dimensions.  Donald Rumsfeld was so right when he said “you don’t know what you don’t know” and the reality is you can’t see it unless you open your eyes.  So in the game of Top Trump, Kim trumped Donald but Xi and Vladimir are yet to play.

Note: This blog is written by Philip Ingram MBE, a former British Army Intelligence Officer who has served in the Middle East and Cyprus and visited the Far East, having recently walked the path in Singapore the 2 world leaders took. If you would like any further comment from Philip, please contact him by clicking HERE

A game of Top Trump – Kim Jong Un wins…

A game of Top Trump – Kim Jong Un wins…

A game of Top Trump – Kim Jong Un wins…

In a letter to the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, released on Thursday 24th May, the US President Donal Trump said, “I was very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have the long-planned meeting.”

So, what does this mean? What led up to this and what will Kim Jong Un’s response be? Philip Ingram MBE an intelligence and military planning expert gives his thoughts.

When looking at any issue from an intelligence perspective it is important that you put your own views, opinions, and prejudices to one side and look at it from the perspective of those involved.  It is only then that you can get a true understanding of what has happened and why.  You then look for the unusual, ‘the things you know you don’t know,’ to paraphrase another American.

My first perspective is Donal Trump.  Over the past weeks and certainly since Mike Pompeo’s visit to North Korea to meet with Kim Jong Un and start the work for what had the potential to be a ground-breaking summit, Trump, and his staff will have come slow realisation that they were being played.

Kim Jong Un, by making all of the noises he did with regard to the Olympics, his disarmament rhetoric and statements, with his meetings with the South Korean Leader Moon Jae-in and ‘destruction’ of his nuclear test facilities at Punggye-ri – Trump saw what he wanted to see, his name in lights, a Nobel Prize and a large ‘I saved the world’ badge on his lapel.  Mr Kim saw recognition.

Trump saw this through the one lens that is the most dangerous for any leader to have, it is the lens of EGO and it is his ego that led him to see what he wanted to see.  The dangerous issue with this, if a leader blinded by his own perspective isn’t dangerous enough, is that his staff are clearly so scared of disagreeing with him that they fell into a group think scenario and everyone believed.  That is a damning criticism of the US intelligence machine as Intelligence should always act as a commander’s conscience.

Trump got out of the summit by getting Mike Pence to say North Korea “may end like Libya”, knowing that this would enrage Kim and Kim’s response through a North Korean official, Choe Son-hui, was to refer to US Vice-President Mike Pence’s comments as “stupid”. A quick diplomatic tussle to give an excuse to cancel the talks.  However, Kim’s response was to use Trump’s language back at him and keep the option for dialogue open.

From Kim Jong Un’s perspective, his nuclear rhetoric, turned into a capable nuclear reality (so who helped him? Read my Blog The Russian Bear leading the bald Trump eagle in a game of nuclear Jong) had allowed him to join the ‘big boys club’ and show he was a leader of global importance by getting the US President to come to him and showing the world his conventional and nuclear capabilities.

Kim never had any intention of getting rid of his nuclear capability, he wanted to cement his place at the top table, ease sanctions so he could make more money and swan around the world like the global leader he sees himself as.

He has probably been given a quite scolding by his elder ‘grandfather’ type figure Xi Jinping telling him to calm the rhetoric down and showing how he can make more money. But he has the ear of Mr Xi.

He has given Putin the idea of using a nerve agent as an assassins’ weapon and shown he can be a plausibly deniable outlet for cyber-attacks. He had nothing to lose by having talks with Moon and Trump and everything to gain. He had a smug feeling in his belly and with his new Russian installed internet pipe, he had the ear of Mr Putin.

However, Kim Jong Un like Donald Trump has an ego and his petulant, childlike ego has just been smacked very hard. Not only will he be reeling from the letter that reads like it is scolding an errant school child by comparing asset sizes, but it was sent on the day he was showing the world’s journalists the supposed destruction of his nuclear test facilities. This could not have been worse from a timing perspective. Very publicly, and almost certainly known by the North Korean population, Donald Trump has caused Kim Jong Un to lose face, something that is culturally unacceptable.

Xi Jinping has no doubt told Kim to count to 100 if he gets wound up by Trump and this is probably why North Korea has said it is still willing to talk “at any time in any form” and vice-foreign minister Kim Kye-gwan said Mr Trump’s decision was “extremely regrettable”.  North Korea is trying to and probably maintaining the higher moral ground.  Xi Jinping will want to use his influence to undo any potential trade tariffs between China and the US and will be working his diplomatic links with President Trump hard. Once that is off the table he will probably let Kim Jong Un have more of a free rein again.

However, I suspect Kim Jong Un has gone well past 100 and is still reeling.  He will be planning his next action; his ego will not let the loss of face subside and unless Trump puts his ego to one side and reaches for an olive branch again; rather than progressing peace this could sink any opportunities whilst Trump remains in the White House and could make the doomsday clock tick even closer to midnight.  The one saving grace is that Xi Jinping is taking a long-term view and is acting as the quiet hand of sense.

One person who remains smiling at the continuing international hiatus is Vladimir Putin. His global freedom of manoeuvre just got a little easier…

Note: This blog is written by Philip Ingram MBE, a former British Army Intelligence Officer who has served in the Middle East and Cyprus. If you would like any further comment from Philip, please contact him by clicking HERE